Exploring the Impact of Energy Consumption, Food Security on CO2 Emissions: a Piece of New Evidence from Pakistan

Snovia Naseem, Tong Guang Ji, Umair Kashif


Adopting a co-integration approach of asymmetric Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), this article seeks to examine the asymmetrical effect of agriculture, energy consumption, and food security on carbon emission of Pakistan from 1970 to 2019. Multiple unit root tests (ADF, PP, and KPSS, Z and A) were used to verify the data stationarity and structural breaks and also used population data as a food security proxy indicator. Our foremost objective of this analysis is to investigate that agricultural results related to CO2 emissions are asymmetrical or not for Pakistan. Our outcome endorses the existence of the asymmetrical effect of agriculture on CO2 in the short- and long-term. Furthermore, the results of population and energy consumption increase environmental degradation. Based on the study findings, the government would need to adopt concrete measures towards effective policymaking and addressing environmental issues in Pakistan.


agriculture; CO2 mitigation; food security; NARDL; structural break

Full Text:



Shin Y., Yu B., and Greenwood-Nimmo M., 2014 Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework, In Festschrift in honor of Peter Schmidt. Springer. p. 281-314.

Charfeddine L., 2017. The impact of energy consumption and economic development on ecological footprint and CO2 emissions: evidence from a Markov switching equilibrium correction model. Energy Economics 65: 355-374.

Asongu S.A., Agboola M.O., Alola A.A., and Bekun F.V., 2020. The criticality of growth, urbanization, electricity and fossil fuel consumption to environment sustainability in Africa. Science of the Total Environment 712(10): 136376.

Wang X., Yu J., Zhang M., and Qin X., 2019. Nuclear, renewables and low carbon growth: A comparative study on China, US, France and Japan. Polish Journal of Environmental Studies 28(4): 2889-2899.

WorldBank. 2017. World Bank Database, Washington, DC, USA. Retrieved August 14 2019 from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.PC?locations=PK&view=chart;

Eckstein D., Hutfils M.-L., and Winges M., 2018; Global Climate Risk Index 2019: Who Suffers Most From Extreme Weather Events? Weather-related Loss Events in 2017 and 1998 to 2017. Bonn, Germany: December. Germanwatch Nord-Süd Initiative eV;

Alam M.M., Murad M.W., Noman A.H.M., and Ozturk I., 2016. Relationships among carbon emissions, economic growth, energy consumption and population growth: testing environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis for Brazil, China, India and Indonesia. Ecological Indicators 70: 466-479.

Rehman A., Ozturk I., and Zhang D., 2019. The causal connection between CO2 emissions and agricultural productivity in Pakistan: empirical evidence from an autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach. Applied Sciences 9(8); 1692.

Pakistan. 2019. Pakistan economic survey. Pakistan: Ministry of Finance, Government of Pakistan.

Von Grebmer K., Bernstein J., Hossain N., Brown T., Prasai N., Yohannes Y., Patterson F., Sonntag A., Zimmerman S.-M., and Towey O., 2017; Global Hunger Index: the inequalities of hunger; Intl Food Policy Res Inst; Washington DC, Dublin, Bonn.

Akbar M., Noor F., Ahmad I., and Sattar A.. 2018. Impact of energy consumption and CO2 emissions on food production in Pakistan: an econometric analysis. Pakistan Journal of Agricultural Sciences 55: 2.

Asghar N. and A. Salman. 2018. Impact of agriculture credit on food production and food security in Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Commerce and Social Sciences (PJCSS) 12(3): 851-864.

Khan D. and A. Ullah. 2019. Testing the relationship between globalization and carbon dioxide emissions in Pakistan: does environmental Kuznets curve exist? Environmental Science and Pollution Research 26(15): 15194-15208.

Mahmood Z., Iftikhar S., Saboor A., Khan A.U., and Khan M., 2016. Agriculture land resources and food security nexus in Punjab, Pakistan: an empirical ascertainment. Food and Agricultural Immunology 27(1): 52-71.

Ur Rahman Z., Chongbo W., and Ahmad M., 2019. An (a) symmetric analysis of the pollution haven hypothesis in the context of Pakistan: a non-linear approac. Carbon Management 10(3): 227-239.

Anoruo E., 2011. Testing for linear and nonlinear causality between crude oil price changes and stock market returns. International Journal of Economic Sciences and Applied Research 4(3): 75-92.

Ullah S., Ozturk I., Usman A., Majeed M.T., and Akhtar P., 2020. On the asymmetric effects of premature deindustrialization on CO2 emissions: evidence from Pakistan. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 1-11.

Malik A., Hussain E., Baig S., and Khokhar M.F.. 2020. Forecasting CO2 emissions from energy consumption in Pakistan under different scenarios: The China–Pakistan economic corridor; Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology.

Naseem S. and T.G. Ji. 2020. A system-GMM approach to examine the renewable energy consumption, agriculture and economic growth’s impact on CO 2 emission in the SAARC region. GeoJournal, 1-13.

Nasir M. and F.U. Rehman. 2011. Environmental Kuznets curve for carbon emissions in Pakistan: an empirical investigation. Energy Policy 39(3): 1857-1864.

Kumail T., Ali W., Sadiq F., Wu D., and Aburumman A., 2020. Dynamic linkages between tourism, technology and CO2 emissions in Pakistan; Anatolia; 1-13.

Shaheen A., Sheng J., Arshad S., Salam S., and Hafeez M., 2020. The dynamic linkage between income, energy consumption, urbanization and carbon emissions in Pakistan. Polish Journal of Environmental Studies 29:1.

Koçak E., Ulucak R., and Ulucak Z.Ş., 2020. The impact of tourism developments on CO2 emissions: An advanced panel data estimation. Tourism Management Perspectives 33: 100611.

Waheed R., Chang D., Sarwar S., and Chen W., 2018. Forest, agriculture, renewable energy, and CO2 emission. Journal of Cleaner Production 172: 4231-4238.

Toumi S. and H. Toumi. 2019. Asymmetric causality among renewable energy consumption, CO 2 emissions, and economic growth in KSA: evidence from a non-linear ARDL model; Environmental Science and Pollution Research 26(16): 16145-16156.

Chen S., Saleem N., and Bari M.W., 2019. Financial development and its moderating role in environmental Kuznets curve: evidence from Pakistan. Environmental Science and Pollution Research 26(19): 19305-19319.

Khan Z., Sisi Z., and Siqun Y., 2019. Environmental regulations an option: Asymmetry effect of environmental regulations on carbon emissions using non-linear ARDL. Energy Sources, Part A: Recovery, Utilization, and Environmental Effects 41(2): 137-155.

Lv Z. and T. Xu. 2019. Trade openness, urbanization and CO2 emissions: Dynamic panel data analysis of middle-income countries. The Journal of International Trade and Economic Development 28(3): 317-330.

Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Rasoulinezhad E., and Yoshino N., 2019. Energy and food security: Linkages through price volatility. Energy Policy 128: 796-806.

Wasti S.K.A. and S.W. Zaidi. 2020. An empirical investigation between CO2 emission, energy consumption, trade liberalization and economic growth: A case of Kuwait. Journal of Building Engineering 28: 101104.

Anwar A., Younis M., and Ullah I., 2020. Impact of urbanization and economic growth on CO2 emission: A case of far east Asian countries. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17(7): 2531.

Balsalobre-Lorente D., Driha O.M., Bekun F.V., and Osundina O.A., 2019. Do agricultural activities induce carbon emissions? The BRICS experience. Environmental Science and Pollution Research 26(24): 25218-25234.

Noh N.M. and M. Masih. 2017. The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth: evidence from Thailand based on NARDL and causality approaches.

Onder M., Ceyhan E., and Kahraman A., 2011. Effects of agricultural practices on environment. In International Conference on Biology, Environment and Chemistry, Singapore, 28-30 December. IACSIT Press, Singapore.

Stolze M., Piorr A., Häring A.M., and Dabbert S., 2000. Environmental impacts of organic farming in Europe: Economics and Policy, 6th Edition. Germany, Stuttgart-Hohenheim.

Reynolds T.W., Waddington S.R., Anderson C.L., Chew A., True Z., and Cullen A., 2015. Environmental impacts and constraints associated with the production of major food crops in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Food Security 7(4): 795-822.

Papachristos G., 2015. Household electricity consumption and CO2 emissions in the Netherlands: A model-based analysis. Energy and Buildings 86: 403-414.

Khobai H.B. and P. Le Roux. 2017. The relationship between energy consumption, economic growth and carbon dioxide emission: The case of South Africa. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 7(3): 102-109.

Gokmenoglu K.K. and M. Sadeghieh. 2019. Financial development, CO2 emissions, fossil fuel consumption and economic growth: The case of Turkey. Strategic Planning for Energy and the Environment 38(4): 7-28.

Rahman Z.U. and M. Ahmad. 2019. Modeling the relationship between gross capital formation and CO2 (a) symmetrically in the case of Pakistan: an empirical analysis through NARDL approach. Environmental Science and Pollution Research 26(8): 8111-8124.

Anser M.K., 2019. Impact of energy consumption and human activities on carbon emissions in Pakistan: application of STIRPAT model. Environmental Science and Pollution Research 26(13): 13453-13463.

Salahuddin M. and J. Gow. 2014. Economic growth, energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Gulf Cooperation Council countries. Energy 73: 44-58.

Ssali M.W., Du J., Mensah I.A., and Hongo D.O.. 2019. Investigating the nexus among environmental pollution, economic growth, energy use, and foreign direct investment in 6 selected sub-Saharan African countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research 26(11): 11245-11260.

Saboori B. and J. Sulaiman. 2013. CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries: A cointegration approach. Energy 55: 813-822.

Ozturk I. and A. Acaravci. 2013. The long-run and causal analysis of energy, growth, openness and financial development on carbon emissions in Turkey. Energy Economics 36: 262-267.

WPC. 2011. Worldometers, World Population Clock. Retrieved July 21 2019 from https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/;

Meyerson F.A., 1998. Population, carbon emissions, and global warming: the forgotten relationship at Kyoto. Population and Development Review 24(1): 115-131.

Rosa E.A. and T. Dietz. 1998. Climate change and society: Speculation, construction and scientific investigation; International Sociology 13(4): 421-455.

Ponce de Leon Barido D. and J.D. Marshall. 2014. Relationship between urbanization and CO2 emissions depends on income level and policy. Environmental Science and Technology 48(7): 3632-3639.

Adusah-Poku F., 2016. Carbon dioxide emissions, urbanization and population: empirical evidence from Sub-Sahran Africa. Energy Economics Letters 3(1): 1-16.

Shi A., 2003. The impact of population pressure on global carbon dioxide emissions, 1975–1996: evidence from pooled cross-country data. Ecological Economics 44(1): 29-42.

Birdsall N., 1992. Another look at population and global warming (in English). Policy Research working papers; no. WPS 1020. Washington, DC: World Bank Publications.

Oganesyan M., 2017. Carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in the BRICS. Master’s Thesis, 30 ECTS. University in Jönköping, Sweden.

Rehman S.A.U., Cai Y., Mirjat N.H., Walasai G.D., and Nafees M., 2019. Energy-environment-economy nexus in Pakistan: Lessons from a PAK-TIMES model. Energy Policy 126: 200-211.

Diallo A.K. and M. Masih. 2017. CO2 emissions and financial development: Evidence from the United Arab Emirates based on an ARDL approach.MPRA, Paper No.: 82054, 1-21.

Shan Y., Guan D., Zheng H., Ou J., Li Y., Meng J., Mi Z., Liu Z., and Zhang Q., 2018. China CO2 emission accounts 1997–2015. Scientific Data 5: 170201.

Xu J.-H., Fleiter T., Eichhammer W., and Fan Y., 2012. Energy consumption and CO2 emissions in China's cement industry: A perspective from LMDI decomposition analysis. Energy Policy 50: 821-832.

Lee K.-H. and B. Min. 2015. Green R and D for eco-innovation and its impact on carbon emissions and firm performance. Journal of Cleaner Production 108: 534-542.

Jordaan S.M., Romo-Rabago E., McLeary R., Reidy L., Nazari J., and Herremans I.M., 2017. The role of energy technology innovation in reducing greenhouse gas emissions: A case study of Canada. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 78: 1397-1409.

Jin L., Duan K., Shi C., and Ju X., 2017. The impact of technological progress in the energy sector on carbon emissions: An empirical analysis from China. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 14(12): 1505.

Ito K., 2017. CO2 emissions, renewable and non-renewable energy consumption, and economic growth: Evidence from panel data for developing countries. International Economics 151: 1-6.

Golley J., Meagher D., and Xin M., 2008. Chinese household consumption, energy requirements and carbon emissions. Chapter in: Ligang S. and Woo W.T. (Eds.), China’s Dilemma: Economic Growth, the Environment and Climate Change. Asia Pacific Press, Canberra and Brookings Institution Press, Washington DC.

Gokmenoglu K., Ozatac N., and Eren B.M.. 2015. Relationship between industrial production, financial development and carbon emissions: The case of Turkey. Procedia Economics and Finance 25: 463-470.

Averchenkova A., Bassi S., Benes K., Green F., Lagarde A., Neuweg I., and Zachmann G., 2016. Climate policy in China, the European Union and the United States: main drivers and prospects for the future: in-depth country analyses. Policy paper, London: Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment and the ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science.

Bildirici M. and S.M. Gokmenoglu. 2020. The impact of terrorism and FDI on environmental pollution: Evidence from Afghanistan, Iraq, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Syria, Somalia, Thailand and Yemen. Environmental Impact Assessment Review 81: 106340.

Hussain M., Butt A.R., Uzma F., Ahmed R., Irshad S., Rehman A., and Yousaf B.. 2020. A comprehensive review of climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation on environmental and natural calamities in Pakistan. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 192(1): 48.

Po W.-C. and B.-N. Huang. 2008. Tourism development and economic growth–a nonlinear approach. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 387(22): 5535-5542.

Bildirici M.E. and C. Turkmen. 2015. Nonlinear causality between oil and precious metals. Resources Policy 46: 202-211.

Luqman M., Ahmad N., and Bakhsh K., 2019. Nuclear energy, renewable energy and economic growth in Pakistan: Evidence from non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model. Renewable Energy 139: 1299-1309.

Ibrahim M.H., 2015. Oil and food prices in Malaysia: a nonlinear ARDL analysis. Agricultural and Food Economics 3(1): 2.

Chandio A.A., Jiang Y., Rauf A., Mirani A.A., Shar R.U., Ahmad F., and Shehzad K., 2019. Does energy-growth and environment quality matter for agriculture sector in Pakistan or not? An application of cointegration approach. Energies 12(10): 1879.

Pesaran M.H., Shin Y., and Smith R.J., 2001. Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics 16(3): 289-326.

Engle R.F. and C.W. Granger. 1987. Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 251-276.

Bahmani-Oskooee M., Halicioglu F., and Mohammadian A., 2018. On the asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on domestic production in Turkey. Economic Change and Restructuring 51(2): 97-112.

Liu W., Hussain S., Wu L., Qin Z., Li X., Lu J., Khan F., Cao W., and Geng M., 2016. Greenhouse gas emissions, soil quality, and crop productivity from a mono-rice cultivation system as influenced by fallow season straw management. Environmental Science and Pollution Research 23(1): 315-328.

Rehman A., Jingdong L., Chandio A.A., and Hussain I., 2017. Livestock production and population census in Pakistan: Determining their relationship with agricultural GDP using econometric analysis. Information Processing in Agriculture 4(2): 168-177.

Alam J., 2015. Impact of agriculture, industry and service sector’s value added in the GDP on CO2 emissions of selected South Asian countries; World Rev Bus Res 5(2): 39-59.

Saidi K. and S. Hammami. 2015. The impact of CO2 emissions and economic growth on energy consumption in 58 countries. Energy Reports 1: 62-70.

Liu Y., Zhou Y., and Wu W.. 2015. Assessing the impact of population, income and technology on energy consumption and industrial pollutant emissions in China. Applied Energy 155: 904-917.

Zhang C. and Y. Lin. 2012. Panel estimation for urbanization, energy consumption and CO2 emissions: A regional analysis in China. Energy Policy 49: 488-498.

Government of Pakistan. 2019. Pakistan Economic Survey, Population Census. Retrieved July 04 2019 from http://www.finance.gov.pk/survey/chapters_19/12-Population.pdf.

Government of Pakistan. 2018. Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. Islamabad, Pakistan: http://www.pbs.gov.pk/content/agriculture-statistics.

Brown R.L., Durbin J., and Evans J.M.. 1975. Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relationships over time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological) 37(2): 149-163.