Study on Price Fluctuation and Influencing Factors of Regional Carbon Emission Trading in China under the Background of High-quality Economic Development

ZENG Sheng, ZHANG Han, QU Yuwei, ZENG Boya


The carbon emission trading market is an economic tool that reduces emissions and thus affects climate change and mitigates the greenhouse effect. In this study, the ARMA-GARCH model and Grey relational analysis are employed to explore the characteristics of carbon price fluctuations in seven regions of China and the possible impacts of six factors including energy prices, economic condition, policy, industrial structure, air quality, and foreign carbon trading price. It is concluded that the regional carbon emission trading prices in China have the characteristics of agglomeration, peak, heavy tail, memory and anti-leverage, which is largely influenced by energy prices, structural factors, policy and environmental factors. Moreover, there are great regional differences in the correlation between high-quality economic development and carbon prices.


ARMA-GARCH model; Carbon emission trading prices; Grey relational analysis; Influencing factors

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