Reliability Analysis of a Micro Hydro Power Plants System at Lombok with Expected Energy Not Supplied Method

Widjonarko Widjonarko, Azmi Saleh, Wahyu Mulyo Utomo, Saodah Omar, Muhammad Ilman Nafi


In the context of this research, understanding the reliability of a power generator is essential as a criterion for assessing its suitability for use or the need for further development. The method used in this study is reliability analysis, known as "Expected Energy Not Supplied (EENS)." The initial step of this method is to calculate the FOR (Forced Outage Rate) to determine the level of disturbances in the generator unit. The subsequent process involves calculating individual probabilities, analyzing the generator load curve, determining the EENS values of three generators, and comparing them with the EENS standards established by the National Electricity Market. These standards stipulate that EENS should not exceed 0.002% of the total energy consumption in the region. This research marks a significant milestone as the first endeavour conducted on Lombok Island within this specific context. The study was conducted by analyzing three operational Micro-Hydro Power (MHP) units on Lombok Island. The research findings indicate that the EENS metric for MHP on Lombok Island stands at 2.822%. This result suggests that the reliability of MHP on Lombok Island falls below the established criterion, which is less than 0.002% annually. In practical terms, these findings imply that MHP plants located on Lombok Island may not be relied upon as the primary source to meet the electricity demands of the Lombok region in 2022. This research provides valuable insights into the challenges of energy reliability on Lombok Island and serves as a crucial foundation for further considerations in the development of renewable energy sources in the region.


Expected energy not supplied; Forced outage rate; Mini hydropower; Probability; Reliability index

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