An Investigation of Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes (ITMOs) on GHG Emissions Reduction in Thailand’s NDC

Abstract

Thailand commits to achieving Carbon Neutrality by 2050 and net-zero GHG emissions by 2065. Its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) also aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 30% by 2030 through domestic efforts, termed “Unconditional NDC,” and up to 40% with international support, termed “Conditional NDC,” compared to its 2030 Business-as-Usual (BAU) of 555 MtCO₂eq. This study explores the potential for reducing GHG emissions in Thailand's energy sector through international cooperation such as the Joint Credit Mechanism (JCM), in accordance with of the Paris Agreement (PA). It is essential that the results of international transfers are accurately accounted for and reported in the NDC tracking under Article 13 by both Parties to prevent double counting. The investigation utilizes the AIM/EndUse model, created by the National Institute for Environmental Studies in Japan. The results show that under the international cooperation framework, Thailand needs to reduce GHG emissions beyond the target specified in the conditional NDC. Finally, to enable the transfer of Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes (ITMOs) under Article 6.2 of PA, Thailand's share of carbon credits should reasonably be capped at no more than 20%, with an additional emission reduction of 12.34 MtCO₂ beyond the conditional Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target of 49.34 MtCO₂.